TNAG-1597-FCO40-2182-Hong-Kong-1987-Review-of-Representative-Government-1987 — Page 199

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(I)

WE MIGHT POSSIBLY BE ABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT THERE WAS NO CLEAR CONSENSUS, THAT THEREFORE NO DIRECTLY ELECTED ELEMENT SHOULD BE INTRODUCED IN 1988, AND THAT THE QUESTION SHOULD BE REVIEWED AGAIN AT A LATER DATE (SAY 1990). THIS IS THE OUTCOME

WHICH THE CHINESE WOULD LIKE TO SEE. IT DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION

OF OPINION IN HONG KONG WHETHER SUCH A LINE WOULD BE POLITICALLY

TENABLE THERE. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WOULD BE FIERCE CRITICISM

FROM THE PRO-DIRECT ELECTION LOBBY THAT WE HAD DUCKED THE ISSUE AND FAILED TO RESPOND TO THE EXPECTATIONS OF HONG KONG PEOPLE.

THE STANDING AND AUTHORITY OF HMG AND THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT

WOULD SUFFER, AS WOULD CONFIDENCE. AT PRESENT IT IS UNLIKELY

THAT WE COULD TAKE SUCH A LINE AT THE OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW AND

RETAIN POLITICAL CREDIBILITY.

(II) WE MIGHT CONCLUDE THAT THERE WAS A MAJORITY OF HONG KONG PEOPLE WHO FAVOURED DIRECT ELECTIONS, BUT THAT IN VIEW OF THE CONTINUING DIVISION OF OPINIONS IT WOULD BE BEST IF THEY WERE NOT INTRODUCED IN 1988. WE MIGHT SET A FUTURE DATE FOR THEIR INTRODUCTION (AFTER A FURTHER LEGCO TERM, OR AFTER AN EXTENDED LEGCO TERM INSTEAD OF HOLDING ELECTIONS IN 1988) OR LEAVE THIS FOR SUBSEQUENT DECISION. IT IS THE VIEW OF THE ACTING GOVERNOR THAT SUCH AN OUTCOME (NEXT WORD UNDERLINED) MIGHT BE POLITICALLY TENABLE IN HONG KONG, GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF THE HONG KONG PEOPLE TO SEEK COMPROMISE AND AVOID CONFRONTATION. THE PROSPECT OF A DIRECT CLASH WITH THE CHINESE WOULD BE A LITTLE REDUCED, BUT NOT ENTIRELY SO. IT WOULD STILL BE NECESSARY TO ORCHESTRATE WITH

THEM IN ADVANCE SOME FORM OF PARALLEL CONCLUSIONS WITHIN THE BLDC

SO AS TO AVOID ANY IMPRESSION THAT WE WERE FORCING ITS HAND.

(III) WE MIGHT CONCLUDE THAT HONG KONG OPINION CLEARLY FAVOURED

THE INTRODUCTION IN 1988 OF A DIRECTLY ELECTED ELEMENT IN LEGCO.

IN THAT CASE WE WOULD HAVE TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO GO ALONG

WITH SUCH A CONCLUSION IN THE WHITE PAPER, AGAIN PROBABLY BY MEANS OF SOME FORM OF PARALLEL STATEMENT OF INTENT WITHIN THE

BLDC WHICH WOULD MAKE CLEAR THAT POST-1997 ARRANGEMENTS WOULD BE COMPATIBLE WITH THOSE ENVISAGED FOR LEGCO IN 1988. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT SUCH AN OUTCOME COULD BE ACHIEVED, BUT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT. IT IS LIKELY THAT PERSONAL NEGOTIATION BETWEEN THE

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