TNAG-1540-FCO40-2104-Further-resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-i-1986 — Page 178

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B

may have reflected the fact

that

our resettlement of the

family reunion cases under our SCORRI commitment would take

about a year, with no commitment by HMG on the resettlement

of further numbers of refugees thereafter.

Forecast of Possible Trends in Hong Kong's Refugee Population

The

9.

The prospects for Hong Kong's refugee population in

1986 are thus for a higher rate of departures than in 1985,

but also for a significantly higher rate of arrivals.

expected departure rate represents an increase of

approximately one fifth over 1985 levels. But Hong Kong's

arrival rate has nearly doubled this year (see the analysis

in Hong Kong Telno 1970). On present trends (2100 arrivals,

400 births and 4800 departures this year) this will me an

that Hong Kong's refugee population will stand

approximately 7000 by

end 1986, compared with 9443 at

end-1985.

at

10. Unless we can give further effective encouragement to

resettlement countries after end 1986 there will remain

only the continuing programmes of Australia, Canada and the

US. In 1985 these together accounted for some 3,580 out of

the 3,953 refugees resettled from Hong Kong. However even these programmes cannot be regarded as assured to remain at

1986 levels because:

(a) Australia has difficulties in funding its

programme. This has already

resettlement

meant that an anticipated allocation in

mid-1986 of further places for Hong Kong

refugees is now unlikely;

(b) Canada has indicated that a decision on

its 1987 allocation for Hong Kong will be

taken in the light of a UK decision on a

further resettlement;

CONFIDENTIAL