TNAG-1540-FCO40-2104-Further-resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-i-1986 — Page 179

CONFIDENTIAL

(c) the US may run short this autumn of

refugees in Hong Kong who meet its

resettlement

criteria

at present defined.

own

as they are

three countries, and if even these

It

to

11. If in 1987 we were dependent only on the resettlement

programmes of these

might well be reduced, what would be the consequence for

refugee population levels?

is probably realistic

assume that 1987 arrivals will be at the higher rate seen

so far in 1986 (this rate is almost twice that of 1985, but

about the same as in 1984). On this basis some 2,100

refugees might arrive in Hong Kong next year. Taken

together with a net increase of some 400 resulting from

births and deaths in the camps, 2,500 departures would thus

be required to keep the population in the camps from increasing. At the best the expected reduction in 1987 is

likely to be small. Even this would be

be a disappointment for Hong Kong and a potential source of friction with Hong

Kong opinion. A fall of more than 1,000 (30%) in the

number resettled by the three major countries would result

in the number of refugees in Hong Kong starting to

Any such increase would be received very badly

in Hong Kong.

Critics in the Hong Kong Government

(Officials and Unofficials) and the population at large would lay the blame at our door, arguing that we had failed

to assist the territory to solve its problems.

ill-feeling could of course spill over into other important aspects of UK/Hong Kong relations.

increase.

Such

in the overall

a rise in

in the numbers

in

12. Any increase or even a standstill

in camp population would result closed camps, since all new arrivals are put in them. The actual number in closed camps is currently falling (from 4,863 to 4,553 in January to May 1986) as resettlement from these camps is going well. (Even so the percentage of Hong Kong's refugee population in closed camps is in fact rising

from 48% to 60% of the total in the first 5 months of

as open camp refugees also continue

be to

1986

CONFIDENTIAL