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B
may have reflected the fact
that
our resettlement of the
family reunion cases under our SCORRI commitment would take
about a year, with no commitment by HMG on the resettlement
of further numbers of refugees thereafter.
Forecast of Possible Trends in Hong Kong's Refugee Population
The
9.
The prospects for Hong Kong's refugee population in
1986 are thus for a higher rate of departures than in 1985,
but also for a significantly higher rate of arrivals.
expected departure rate represents an increase of
approximately one fifth over 1985 levels. But Hong Kong's
arrival rate has nearly doubled this year (see the analysis
in Hong Kong Telno 1970). On present trends (2100 arrivals,
400 births and 4800 departures this year) this will me an
that Hong Kong's refugee population will stand
approximately 7000 by
end 1986, compared with 9443 at
end-1985.
at
10. Unless we can give further effective encouragement to
resettlement countries after end 1986 there will remain
only the continuing programmes of Australia, Canada and the
US. In 1985 these together accounted for some 3,580 out of
the 3,953 refugees resettled from Hong Kong. However even these programmes cannot be regarded as assured to remain at
1986 levels because:
(a) Australia has difficulties in funding its
programme. This has already
resettlement
meant that an anticipated allocation in
mid-1986 of further places for Hong Kong
refugees is now unlikely;
(b) Canada has indicated that a decision on
its 1987 allocation for Hong Kong will be
taken in the light of a UK decision on a
further resettlement;
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