TNAG-1535-FCO40-2099-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation-1986 — Page 42

CONFIDENTIAL

DSR 11C

(viii) The fact that so few have opted for repatriation

hitherto suggests that forcible expulsion would

have to be employed. In view again of the numbers

involved and the fact that this expulsion would

take place in areas from which press etc attention

could not legitimately be excluded, passionate

opposition may be expected.

(ix) Most expulsions would not be carried out across

land borders. The technical problems of coercing

unwilling people into transport and controlling

them in transit would be considerable.

Conclusion

14.

In spite of the advantages of repatriation listed at

para 10 above, recourse to involuntary repatriation where

large numbers of people are involved is likely to be a

high-publicity policy, with consequent high risks of

immediate or long-subsequent criticism if things go wrong

or perceptions of currently held values and

preoccupations change. Brief facts on a selection of

past cases affording some possible analogies is at

Appendix C. However, the continuing and perhaps

escalating problems posed by the continued arrival of

asylum-seekers from Indochina and the dwindling

prospects that the three alternative solutions listed at

para 3 will ever bring about a solution is likely to

focus attention ever more clearly on the need for the

CONFIDENTIAL