TNAG-1534-FCO40-2098-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation-1986 — Page 106

CONFIDENTIAL

(c) the US may run short this

refugees in

resettlement

Hong Kong who

criteria

at present defined.

autumn

meet its

of

own

as they are

that

same

net a

It is probably realistic will be at the higher rate 1987 arrivals will be at so far in 1986 (this rate is almost twice that of 1985, but

about the

as in 1984). On this basis some 2,100

refugees might arrive in Hong Kong next

Taken

of increase

11. If in 1987 we were dependent only on the resettlement

three

of these

and programmes

countries,

if even these

might well be reduced, what would be

what would be the consequence for

to

refugee population levels?

assume

seen

some

year.

400 resulting

from

population in the camps

together with births and deaths in the camps, 2,500 departures would thus

from

be required to keep the increasing. At the best the expected reduction in 1987 is likely to be small. Even this would be a disappointment

A fall of

more

than

1,000 (30%) in

to

for Hong Kong and a potential source of friction with Hong Kong opinion.

in the

number resettled by the three major countries would result in the number of refugees in Hong Kong starting increase. Any such increase would be received very badly

Kong.

in Critics Hong

the Hong Kong Government

(Officials and Unofficials) and

at the population large

in

its problems.

Such

would lay the blame at our door, arguing that we had failed to assist the territory to solve ill-feeling could of course spill over into other important aspects of UK/Hong Kong relations.

in the overall 12. Any increase or even a standstill

a rise in the numbers in camp population would result in a rise

in them. The closed camps, since all new arrivals are put actual number in closed camps is currently falling (from 4,863 to 4,553 in January to May 1986) as resettlement from these camps is going well. (Even so the percentage of Hong Kong's refugee population in closed camps is in fact rising first 5 months of first from 48% to 60% of the total in the

also continue to be refugees camp

1986

as

open

CONFIDENTIAT.