CONFIDENTIAL
B
may have reflected the fact
that
our resettlement of the
family reunion cases under our SCORRI commitment would take about a year, with no commitment by HMG on the resettlement of further numbers of refugees thereafter.
Forecast of Possible Trends in Hong Kong's Refugee
Population
9.
The prospects for Hong Kong's refugee population in 1986 are thus for a higher rate of departures than in 1985, but also for a significantly higher rate of arrivals. The expected departure rate represents an increase of
approximately one fifth over 1985 levels. But Hong Kong's arrival rate has nearly doubled this year (see the analysis in Hong Kong Telno 1970). On present trends (2100 arrivals, births and 4800 departures this year) this will me an
Kong's Hong
refugee population will stand at
approximately 7000 by end 1986, compared with 9443 at
end-1985.
that
10. Unless we can give further effective encouragement to resettlement countries after end 1986 there will remain only the continuing programmes of Australia, Canada and the US. In 1985 these together accounted for some 3,580 out of the 3,953 refugees resettled from Hong Kong. However even these programmes cannot be regarded as assured to remain at
1986 levels because:
in
(a) Australia has difficulties in funding its resettlement programme. This has already meant that an anticipated allocation mid-1986 of further places for Hong Kong refugees is now unlikely;
(b) Canada has
indicated
that a
decision
on
its 1987 allocation for Hong Kong will be taken in the light of a UK decision on
further resettlement;
a
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