CONFIDENTIAL
(c) the US may run short this
refugees in
resettlement
Hong Kong who
criteria
at present defined.
autumn
meet its
of
own
as they are
that
same
net a
It is probably realistic will be at the higher rate 1987 arrivals will be at so far in 1986 (this rate is almost twice that of 1985, but
about the
as in 1984). On this basis some 2,100
refugees might arrive in Hong Kong next
Taken
of increase
11. If in 1987 we were dependent only on the resettlement
three
of these
and programmes
countries,
if even these
might well be reduced, what would be
what would be the consequence for
to
refugee population levels?
assume
seen
some
year.
400 resulting
from
population in the camps
together with births and deaths in the camps, 2,500 departures would thus
from
be required to keep the increasing. At the best the expected reduction in 1987 is likely to be small. Even this would be a disappointment
A fall of
more
than
1,000 (30%) in
to
for Hong Kong and a potential source of friction with Hong Kong opinion.
in the
number resettled by the three major countries would result in the number of refugees in Hong Kong starting increase. Any such increase would be received very badly
Kong.
in Critics Hong
the Hong Kong Government
(Officials and Unofficials) and
at the population large
in
its problems.
Such
would lay the blame at our door, arguing that we had failed to assist the territory to solve ill-feeling could of course spill over into other important aspects of UK/Hong Kong relations.
in the overall 12. Any increase or even a standstill
a rise in the numbers in camp population would result in a rise
in them. The closed camps, since all new arrivals are put actual number in closed camps is currently falling (from 4,863 to 4,553 in January to May 1986) as resettlement from these camps is going well. (Even so the percentage of Hong Kong's refugee population in closed camps is in fact rising first 5 months of first from 48% to 60% of the total in the
also continue to be refugees camp
1986
as
open
CONFIDENTIAT.