The principal reason why we have ignored Taiwan in the immediate past is, of course, Hong Kong. While the negotiations over the future of the Colony were going on, it was clearly sensible that we should do nothing to irritate Peking. If that meant ignoring Taipei, then Taipei had to be ignored. But now that the agreement has been ratified by the Queen's recent visit to the Mainland, I think that it is in our interest, and in the interest of the people of Hong Kong, that we should quietly and subtly remind Peking that we are aware of the existence of a Taiwanese card on
the table. In the next few months, we will be discussing the contents of the 'Basic
Law' which will hopefully survive 1997. We must all hope that the rulers of Peking will afford Hong Kong a large degree of autonomy, the preservation of the present legal system, and guaranteed freedom of speech, religion and the press. We must hope that in the period up to and beyond 1997, the heirs of Deng will continue to recognise that the prosperity of Hong Kong is essential for the wellbeing of the Mainland.
Perhaps that will happen, but even today, a sizeable proportion (perhaps close to 40%) of the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, believe that Hong Kong is a modern
Sodom and Gomorrah. The fact that it is a rich Sodom and a prosperous Gomorrah makes
Hong Kong more, rather than less, offensive, in puritan Marxist eyes.
There are some people in Hong Kong who believe that the establishment of free demo-
cratic institutions and the introduction of One Man, One Vote, would be a powerful
guarantee against a potentially hostile Peking regime after 1997. I happen to believe
that this is an illusion. If there should be a return to Mao-ism in Peking, the
existence of a directly elected Legislative Council in Hong Kong could be casually
snuffed out. I share the view of many others that the essential freedom for Hong
Kong in the years up to 1997, and possibly beyond, is the freedom to leave. Indeed,
in our continuing discussions with Peking, one of the few cards that we have in our
hands would be the ability to remind them that the people in Hong Kong can leave in
large numbers.
The fact that many wealthy Chinese businessmen in Hong Kong are already making their
plans to transfer their families and their fortunes to other countries is well known,
and well documented. There are, however, perhaps a million Chinese in Hong Kong who
do not have enough wealth to contemplate new life in San Francisco, or Sidney or
Surbiton, but who have acquired capitalist skills, a capitalist lifestyle, and a liking for limited freedom. For them, there is, effectively, only one possible haven
- Taiwan.
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