5
In the last few months, there has undoubtedly been an increase in Communist influence in Hong Kong. For example, newspapers which were highly critical of
Peking have changed their tune. As time passes, and it becomes clearer that the
only alternative to life under Peking is life in Taiwan, the influence of Taiwan's unofficial spokesmen in Hong Kong is also likely to increase.
How will the government in Taipei play its hand in Hong Kong in the next few years? More than two years ago, they set up a Special Office of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission. The influx of 500,000 to 1,000,000 skilled, hardworking Hong Kong residents, over the next decade, could provide the boost that Taiwan needs to
consolidate her position as one of the top twenty industrial countries in the world.
At the same time, a large influx could provide serious problems for the government in Taipei.
How will the authorities in Taipei handle this challenge? It seems to me to be important for us that we should try to be well aware of all the nuances of fluctuating Taiwanese attitudes to Hong Kong. I do not believe that we need anything like the large semi-diplomatic American Institute in Taipei, in order to monitor developments which may affect Hong Kong, but we do need a much more significant presence than we
have at the moment. We ought, in a semi-private capacity, to have someone on the
ground in Taiwan who has sufficient status so that he can at least talk with Ministers
and senior officials in Taipei.
There are a number of ways in which this could be done with some subtlety. I flew
from Taipei to Tokyo as they were celebrating "Reverence for the Elderly Day" in
Taiwan, and a belief that intelligent life does not end at sixty seems to be one of
the more admirable features of Chinese thinking. There are, in the United Kingdom,
a lot of people who have recently retired from the Foreign Service or from Commerce,
who have an extensive knowledge of Chinese ways. It shouldn't be too difficult to find the right person and to provide him with a suitable establishment. There should be a certain touch of class about our presence.
To sum up, I would not presume to tell the Foreign Office that it ought to drop its
'One China' policy, any more than I would presume to suggest to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei that the time had come for the Republic of China in Taipei to discard its 'One China' policy. But I do believe that there are gains to be made by quietly modifying our own 'One China' policy. It is a question of a bit of a shift in our
balance.
Sir Philip Goodhart
nov 10OC
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