TNAG-1533-FCO40-2097-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-closed-camp-policy-1986 — Page 54

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In the economic field, we have long been hypnotised by the old mirage of a market of one billion people, and the economic dream of 'lighting the lamps of China". As Derek Davies, the Editor of the authoritative Far Eastern Economic Review, points out in the issue dealing with the Queen's visit to China: "Such ambitions will prove illusory: the buying splurges are over...".

I don't entirely share the view of a Chinese friend of mine in Hong Kong, who has made many trips to the Mainland, when he says: "China doesn't have an economy; China has a harvest." But I do note that almost all the diplomatic briefings that I have had in the past 28 years about the Chinese economy, have consistently over- emphasised the potential impact of Mainland China in world markets. Five years ago,

or even three years ago, when B.P. was happily talking about the South China Sea as providing the world's last great oil frontier, and when Deng's policies promised a new dawn, it might have made sense to ignore Taiwan in the hopes of capturing a major share of the Mainland market. I believe that this argument is losing its validity.

I don't believe that there is very much likelihood that we can sell a great deal to Taiwan, but our present efforts seem to be on a very limited scale. I recently went round a department store in Taipei, which was full of foreign goods. From this country, there were some Jaegar sweaters, and, I am happy to say, some fabrics produced by G. P. & J. Baker, a firm once owned by my wife's relatives. Apart from that, almost everything was Australian, American, French, German, Italian or Swiss. We clearly can do better with direct exports, and even more important, we should be able to capture an important share of their rapidly growing financial market. note that the Midland Bank is about to open an office there.

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We will have very little chance of doing well in this market so long as we maintain

the existing system of clearing all visas through Hong Kong. At the best, this takes a fortnight now, and the chances are that the period will lenghten as the Hong

Kong Immigration Office has had to take on an enormous amount of extra work in the

last few months. I am not suggesting that we should open an official Consulate in

Taipei, but I am suggesting that we make the sort of sensible unofficial arrangement

which so many other countries do. For visa purposes, other countries usually use

an airline office or a 'travel agency' for documentation and visa work. I don't see

why we cannot have a special travel agency which would handle visa matters.

actually make money! Our first private enterprise "de facto Consulate".

It might