TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 103

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CONFIDENTIAL

even of encouragement.

There may however be no need to announce

a change of policy at least in the early stages. The political and economic aspects of the suggested measures represent, in the early stages, little more than an acceleration of the work

already under way in the dependencies and should not attract

attention or give rise to criticism. However once the US and the dependencies are approached with an explanation of our intentions the change in policy will leak. The timing of our approaches to the US and the dependencies will therefore be important for a number of reasons and will be influenced by the

following factors among others:

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our intentions are more likely to leak from the dependencies than from the US administration which would suggest that

the first approach should be to the US. But a leak from

the US would do considerable damage in the dependencies as

well as in the UK. Possibly the best approach is to

explain our policies to the US first but only slightly before an approach to the dependencies.

an early approach to the US gives more time to convince them of the need for a change of policy and to agree alternative security arrangements. But it would also increase the risks of an early leak possibly before the

momentum for change had been established in the

dependencies.

an early approach to some of the dependencies (particularly those such as Bermuda and Montserrat where a degree of

cooperation could be expected) has its advantages. A

programme of action could then be implemented with the full

cooperation of the leaders. But the risk of an early leak could again undermine the policy.

ideally some dependencies (eg Bermuda and Montserrat) should

be approached before others (eg Cayman), where opposition to

change, at least initially, can be expected. But once our

intentions in one Caribbean island are known there will be

intense interest about our policy on the others and it will be difficult to keep the issues separate.

It will not prove easy to resolve these competing interests.

Once our intentions leak a public line will be needed,

CONFIDENTIAL