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CONFIDENTIAL
even of encouragement.
There may however be no need to announce
a change of policy at least in the early stages. The political and economic aspects of the suggested measures represent, in the early stages, little more than an acceleration of the work
already under way in the dependencies and should not attract
attention or give rise to criticism. However once the US and the dependencies are approached with an explanation of our intentions the change in policy will leak. The timing of our approaches to the US and the dependencies will therefore be important for a number of reasons and will be influenced by the
following factors among others:
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our intentions are more likely to leak from the dependencies than from the US administration which would suggest that
the first approach should be to the US. But a leak from
the US would do considerable damage in the dependencies as
well as in the UK. Possibly the best approach is to
explain our policies to the US first but only slightly before an approach to the dependencies.
an early approach to the US gives more time to convince them of the need for a change of policy and to agree alternative security arrangements. But it would also increase the risks of an early leak possibly before the
momentum for change had been established in the
dependencies.
an early approach to some of the dependencies (particularly those such as Bermuda and Montserrat where a degree of
cooperation could be expected) has its advantages. A
programme of action could then be implemented with the full
cooperation of the leaders. But the risk of an early leak could again undermine the policy.
ideally some dependencies (eg Bermuda and Montserrat) should
be approached before others (eg Cayman), where opposition to
change, at least initially, can be expected. But once our
intentions in one Caribbean island are known there will be
intense interest about our policy on the others and it will be difficult to keep the issues separate.
It will not prove easy to resolve these competing interests.
Once our intentions leak a public line will be needed,
CONFIDENTIAL