TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 102

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interests (see paras 3 and 4 of Research Department paper on

"interests" and "wishes").

32

Paras 19-31 have dealt in general terms with the programme of action necessary in the six dependencies to achieve independence. Annex D covers in more detail how such a programme might be applied to each individual territory. As the Annex shows independence should be achievable for Bermuda within five years, and for the rest by the year 2000.

VII

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR HMG

33 No detailed costing of the measures recommended above has

been made and this will need to await the full involvement of the

Development Division in Bridgetown. But at this stage the calculations suggest that the recommendations made do not rule

themselves out on grounds of cost. In Bermuda and the Cayman Islands no new HMG funded capital projects are envisaged and in Anguilla the capital spending programme already written into the aid programme will probably suffice. Additional capital expenditure may be needed in the TCI, Montserrat and BVI. More technical cooperation of the sort mentioned in para 28(ii) will also be necessary in nearly all the territories and HMG should be prepared to pay for this even in the richer dependencies. In sum capital expenditure might be expected to rise from [£ m] in 1986/7 to [£ m] in [199] on average involving an annual increase in capital expenditure over current provisions of

[ £ ml.

Similarly technical cooperation costs would be expected

to rise by about [£ m] annually. There would also need to be

some small increase in the costs of administration. In addition

to these pre-independence costs there would also be the added cost of any independence settlement agreements. This might in

total amount to [£ m). [More detail and description of the

extra costs involved plus if possible an idea of the long term

savings].

VIII POLICY PRESENTATION AND TIMING

34 Such a policy would mark a change of emphasis from the present one of doing no more than encouraging the process of

independence. In recent years there has been little evidence

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