TNAG-1167-FCO40-1447-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 39

- 3.-

others in ASEAN were coming to share, was that it was the Soviet

Union which had the greatest potential to pose a threat to the

region. China, through its proximity and through the overseas

Chinese, would inevitably continue to pose a threat. But it was

the Soviet Union which had the resources. There could be no

real long-term solution until the China/Vietnam quarrel had been

sorted out and there was no obvious substitute which could provide

reassurance to Vietnam. But he thought that Vietnam would find

that over-dependence on the Soviet Union was not in her best

interests and eventually seek a policy of equidistance between

the Soviet Union and China.

4. Mr Dhanabalan said that the Vietnamese argument was that the

Cambodian problem could only be settled in the context of a

resolution of the overall China/Vietnam dispute. But he believed

that if the Cambodian issue could be resolved it would inevitably

affect the Chinese position since it would lead to a reassessment

of ASEAN's views and this in turn would force China to readjust.

If the Vietnamese were smart they would recognise that an

accommodation over Cambodia would have repercussions in Peking.

•

Mr Dhanabalan continued that within ASEAN Thailand was of

course the front line state but ASEAN did not expect a frontal

invasion of Thailand from Cambodia. Vietnam would need Soviet

He thought

backing and he did not believe this was forthcoming.

there were signs of disillusionment with the Soviets in Vietnam

but that the seeds of a conflict were suppressed because of the

dispute with China. Lord Carrington pointed out that the Soviet

Union would be most reluctant to leave Vietnam and that it was

very much in their interest to be there. Mr Dhanabalan agreed

CONFIDENTIAL

/that