- 3.-
others in ASEAN were coming to share, was that it was the Soviet
Union which had the greatest potential to pose a threat to the
region. China, through its proximity and through the overseas
Chinese, would inevitably continue to pose a threat. But it was
the Soviet Union which had the resources. There could be no
real long-term solution until the China/Vietnam quarrel had been
sorted out and there was no obvious substitute which could provide
reassurance to Vietnam. But he thought that Vietnam would find
that over-dependence on the Soviet Union was not in her best
interests and eventually seek a policy of equidistance between
the Soviet Union and China.
4. Mr Dhanabalan said that the Vietnamese argument was that the
Cambodian problem could only be settled in the context of a
resolution of the overall China/Vietnam dispute. But he believed
that if the Cambodian issue could be resolved it would inevitably
affect the Chinese position since it would lead to a reassessment
of ASEAN's views and this in turn would force China to readjust.
If the Vietnamese were smart they would recognise that an
accommodation over Cambodia would have repercussions in Peking.
•
Mr Dhanabalan continued that within ASEAN Thailand was of
course the front line state but ASEAN did not expect a frontal
invasion of Thailand from Cambodia. Vietnam would need Soviet
He thought
backing and he did not believe this was forthcoming.
there were signs of disillusionment with the Soviets in Vietnam
but that the seeds of a conflict were suppressed because of the
dispute with China. Lord Carrington pointed out that the Soviet
Union would be most reluctant to leave Vietnam and that it was
very much in their interest to be there. Mr Dhanabalan agreed
CONFIDENTIAL
/that