TNAG-1147-FCO40-1427-UK-policy-towards-South-East-Asia--including-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 120

developing too powerful a presence.

-

Japan and the USA.

Two other major powers are concerned with SE Asia

The former's interests appear to be almost entirely economic, the

latter's are economic, political and military (eg bases in the

Philippines). Japan's interest seems to be almost wholly beneficial

although there well may be a certain anxiety amongst the states of

SE Asia least they fall irrevocably into Tokyo's economic orbit.

Something the same may be said of their attitude to America; but this

is perhaps off-set by the reluctance of the Americans, from the

ending of the Vietnam war until fairly recently, to become too

involved in the affairs of the region.

Turning to the future, the omens for SE Asia or at least the ASEAN

part of it - look reasonably bright. Here are five countries with

expanding economies, with many natural resources and adaptable pop-

ulations; certainly with great problems, social, political and economic.

ASEAN's difficulties do not appear to be insoluble, however given

time and patience. The ASEAN countries enjoy good relations with the

industrialized West and are, at the same time, respected in the Third

World.

By contrast, Vietnam's difficulties (together with those of Cambodia

and Laos) are susceptible of no easy solution. Increasingly in debt

to one of the major Communist powers, she is bitterly hostile to the

other. At the same time she has forfeited much of the good will of

major non-communist powers by her invasion of Cambodia and her policy

towards the boat people. Against this background, her capacity for

destabilisation of the existing situation in the region appears

limited. Nontheless, the ASEAN countries need to be vigilant, although

there may also be a case for trying to bring Vietnam back into the

/comity

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