developing too powerful a presence.
-
Japan and the USA.
Two other major powers are concerned with SE Asia
The former's interests appear to be almost entirely economic, the
latter's are economic, political and military (eg bases in the
Philippines). Japan's interest seems to be almost wholly beneficial
although there well may be a certain anxiety amongst the states of
SE Asia least they fall irrevocably into Tokyo's economic orbit.
Something the same may be said of their attitude to America; but this
is perhaps off-set by the reluctance of the Americans, from the
ending of the Vietnam war until fairly recently, to become too
involved in the affairs of the region.
Turning to the future, the omens for SE Asia or at least the ASEAN
part of it - look reasonably bright. Here are five countries with
expanding economies, with many natural resources and adaptable pop-
ulations; certainly with great problems, social, political and economic.
ASEAN's difficulties do not appear to be insoluble, however given
time and patience. The ASEAN countries enjoy good relations with the
industrialized West and are, at the same time, respected in the Third
World.
By contrast, Vietnam's difficulties (together with those of Cambodia
and Laos) are susceptible of no easy solution. Increasingly in debt
to one of the major Communist powers, she is bitterly hostile to the
other. At the same time she has forfeited much of the good will of
major non-communist powers by her invasion of Cambodia and her policy
towards the boat people. Against this background, her capacity for
destabilisation of the existing situation in the region appears
limited. Nontheless, the ASEAN countries need to be vigilant, although
there may also be a case for trying to bring Vietnam back into the
/comity
Page 120Page 121