Conclusion of a cast-iron agreement on the entire project with the PRC Covernment would be essential. Preliminary negotiations would probably take a minimum of a year. Feasibility studies of one or more sites in China and related access studies, which would have to start from scratch, would then be necessary. Assuming funds were available, these studies would take roughly two years to complete. Consideration of these studies by both China and Hong Kong would take further time. On an optimistic estimate it would take at least four years before a final decision could be taken on whether building an airport in China was feasible or not. At that point, a final and detailed agreement with the Chinese would have to be negotiated. Even assuming satisfactory negotiations on all points and rapid construction (two factors which themselves are by no means certain), the time-scale would significantly postpone measures to deal with saturation at Kai Tak airport during peak hours forecast to take place from 1985 onwards and would have adverse implications for the economy.
(h) Private sector investment. There is, of
course, no guarantee that all private sector interests associated with and located at Kai Tak would be prepared to invest substantial sums of money in an airport in China, especially if Kai Tak remained in commission. Should these interests not invest, the parties responsible for the airport in China would have to provide the finance for facilities now provided by the private sector at Kai Tak.
CONCLUSIONS
10.
Although insufficient information is available to make a detailed comparison of costs between possible sites in China and Chek Lap Kok, it is evident that inability to develop Kai Tak for other purposes would mean that building Hong Kong's replacement airport in China would not be the cheap option it might at first sight appear to be. Furthermore, there are many cogent arguments against the siting of an airport outside Hong Kong's own territory, in the main deriving from uncertainty in respect of control. On the basis of the arguments, advantages and disadvantages outlined above, the balance is overwhelmingly against the unknown
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of China in comparison with the certainties of Chek Lap Kok,
機密
CONFIDENTIAL #2
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