TNAG-0955-FCO40-1174-Legislation-for-traffic-on-roads-in-Hong-Kong-1980 — Page 17

3. FORECAST OF FUTURE TRAFFIC

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3.1 As discussed above, the maximum peak-hour passenger demand is

sensitive to service and fare level. Consequently, there will

be slightly different demand levels with each different combin-

ation of the various transport modes and their respective

service levels. For the purpose of this paper, we will assume

an appropriate demand forecast for a mixture of buses,

PLB's

and modernised trams.

3.2 Growth in ridership along the Corridor will be lower than the

growth on services to the South of the Island (e.g. Ap Lei Chau, Aberdeen and Wong Chuk Hang) because the major part of

future population growth will take place in the South.

Thus,

growth along the Corridor will be less than the average growth

rate for the whole Island.

3.3 CMB has not received much information from the Government on

future demand but one forecast which has been quoted in certain

quarters is for a growth rate of 5% per annum leading to a total

of 3.6 million daily passengers along the Corridor in 1996.

In 1991 the figure would be 2.8 million which it is interesting

to compare with the Comprehensive Transport Study's figure

for 1991 of 2.0 million. Such a high variation (0.8 million or 40%) is difficult to justify.

3.4 It has been stated that CMB's proposed strategy could not

handle 3.6 million passengers per day this we reject.

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occupancy

A feature of Corridor bus services is the multiple

of passenger places i.e. each passenger-place on a bus is

used on average twice in each direction because short-distance

passengers who are attracted by the cheap fares alight part

of the way along the route and are replaced by other passengers.

This feature is less likely to occur with an underground

railway as the high fare and inconvenient access will discourage

short-distance riders,

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