3. FORECAST OF FUTURE TRAFFIC
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3.1 As discussed above, the maximum peak-hour passenger demand is
sensitive to service and fare level. Consequently, there will
be slightly different demand levels with each different combin-
ation of the various transport modes and their respective
service levels. For the purpose of this paper, we will assume
an appropriate demand forecast for a mixture of buses,
PLB's
and modernised trams.
3.2 Growth in ridership along the Corridor will be lower than the
growth on services to the South of the Island (e.g. Ap Lei Chau, Aberdeen and Wong Chuk Hang) because the major part of
future population growth will take place in the South.
Thus,
growth along the Corridor will be less than the average growth
rate for the whole Island.
3.3 CMB has not received much information from the Government on
future demand but one forecast which has been quoted in certain
quarters is for a growth rate of 5% per annum leading to a total
of 3.6 million daily passengers along the Corridor in 1996.
In 1991 the figure would be 2.8 million which it is interesting
to compare with the Comprehensive Transport Study's figure
for 1991 of 2.0 million. Such a high variation (0.8 million or 40%) is difficult to justify.
3.4 It has been stated that CMB's proposed strategy could not
handle 3.6 million passengers per day this we reject.
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occupancy
A feature of Corridor bus services is the multiple
of passenger places i.e. each passenger-place on a bus is
used on average twice in each direction because short-distance
passengers who are attracted by the cheap fares alight part
of the way along the route and are replaced by other passengers.
This feature is less likely to occur with an underground
railway as the high fare and inconvenient access will discourage
short-distance riders,
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