TNAG-0937-FCO40-1156-Visits-of-Sir-Murray-MacLehose--Governor-of-Hong-Kong--to-th-1980 — Page 127

GR 862*

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FM HONG KONG 0808452 JUL

TO PR NTY FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE

TELEGRAM NUMBER 868 OF 8 JULY, 1980

INFO PRIORITY PEKING.

MY LETTERS TO MURRAY, AUSS, OF 30 APRIL AND 14 MAY: ILLEGAL

IMMIGRATION.

1. AS YOU KNOW, EXCO HAVE APPROVED ON A CONTINGENCY BASIS AN OUTLINE PLAN FOR ENDING THE PRESENT 'REACHED BASE" POLICY FOR ILLEGAL EVADERS (OPERATION CHAMPION). (DETAILS ARE IN

DAVIES' LETTER TO CLIFT OF 32 MAY). IN VIEW OF THE PENALTIES

DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH 6 OF MY LETTER TO MURRAY OF 30 APRIL I

ORIGINALLY ENVISAGED THIS PLAN BEING USED ONLY IN THE EVENT OF

A SERIOUS RISE IN NUMBERS WITH NO OTHER APPARENT HOPE OF REMEDY.

2. THERE ARE NOW A NUMBER OF FACTORS WHICH LEAD ME TO MODIFY THIS

VIEW. THESE ARE:-

(1) THOUGH ARREST FIGURES HAVE NOT RISEN DRAMATICALLY THEY ARE DEPRESSINGLY STEADY AND HIGH. THE NUMBER ARRESTED IN JUNE WAS NEARLY 8,000. ABOUT AS MANY MUST HAVE GOT THROUGH. THIS IS ABOUT

THE SAME AS FOR MAY. NEVERTHELESS, AT THE PRESENT RATE WE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST 70,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS REACHING BASE THIS YEAR (1.E. 2/3RDS OF LAST YEAR).

(11) EVEN THE PRESENT UNACCEPTABLY HIGH PLATEAU RESULTS FROM INTENSIVE OPERATIONS BY THE CHINESE AND OURSELVES. WE CANNOT RELY ON THE FORMER BEING EVENLY MAINTAINED, AND THE LATTER ARE

A SEVERE STRAIN ON THE GARRISON AND POLICE.

(111) THE FLOW OF LEGALS IS STEADY AT 158 A DAY, OR ABOUT 55,800

A YEAR. THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO TAKE

ACTION TO REDUCE THE NUMBER SIGNIFICANTLY.

(IV) THIS MEANS WE COULD FACE A POPULATION INCREASE THIS YEAR,

FROM IMMIGRATION ALONE, OF AT LEAST 125,000 (EXCLUDING VIETNAMESE). THIS IS ON TOP OF AN INCREASE OF AT LEAST 180,000 LAST YEAR. WE CANNOT GO ON ABSORBING POPULATION AT THIS RATE WITHOUT VERY SERIOUS

CONSEQUENCES FOR WAGES, SOCIAL SERVICES, AND, ULTIMATELY, FOLITICAL STABILITY. A NEW FACTOR IS THAT THIS IS NOW REALISED BY THE PUBLIC,

BECAUSE THE STEADY ACCUMULATION OF NUMBERS HAS PASSED THE POINT AT

WHICH IMMIGRANTS CAN BE INVISIBLY ABSORBED. SQUATTER AREAS ARE

GROWING, THE 11'S ARE A NOTICEABLE AND UNRULY ELEMENT, AND FELLOW

FEELING FOR THEM HAS EVAPORATED.

(V) THE CERTAINTY OF INTERNATIONAL RECESSION, WHICH INEVITABLY WILL

HIT HONG KONG IS ALSO A MAJOR NEW FACTOR WHICH WORSENS THIS

PROSPECT.

(VI) BECAUSE OF (IV) AND (V) ABOVE PUBLIC OPINION HAS NOTICE ABL Y

HARDENED IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS, AND THERE IS INCREASING CRITICISM IN AND OUTSIDE THE MEDIA OF GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ACT TO CHANGE

THE 'REACHED BASE'' POLICY. THIS CRITICISM WILL GROW AS RECESSION

ABROAD AFFECTS THE WORKING POPULATION HERE.

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