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FM HONG KONG 0808452 JUL
TO PR NTY FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE
TELEGRAM NUMBER 868 OF 8 JULY, 1980
INFO PRIORITY PEKING.
MY LETTERS TO MURRAY, AUSS, OF 30 APRIL AND 14 MAY: ILLEGAL
IMMIGRATION.
1. AS YOU KNOW, EXCO HAVE APPROVED ON A CONTINGENCY BASIS AN OUTLINE PLAN FOR ENDING THE PRESENT 'REACHED BASE" POLICY FOR ILLEGAL EVADERS (OPERATION CHAMPION). (DETAILS ARE IN
DAVIES' LETTER TO CLIFT OF 32 MAY). IN VIEW OF THE PENALTIES
DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH 6 OF MY LETTER TO MURRAY OF 30 APRIL I
ORIGINALLY ENVISAGED THIS PLAN BEING USED ONLY IN THE EVENT OF
A SERIOUS RISE IN NUMBERS WITH NO OTHER APPARENT HOPE OF REMEDY.
2. THERE ARE NOW A NUMBER OF FACTORS WHICH LEAD ME TO MODIFY THIS
VIEW. THESE ARE:-
(1) THOUGH ARREST FIGURES HAVE NOT RISEN DRAMATICALLY THEY ARE DEPRESSINGLY STEADY AND HIGH. THE NUMBER ARRESTED IN JUNE WAS NEARLY 8,000. ABOUT AS MANY MUST HAVE GOT THROUGH. THIS IS ABOUT
THE SAME AS FOR MAY. NEVERTHELESS, AT THE PRESENT RATE WE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST 70,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS REACHING BASE THIS YEAR (1.E. 2/3RDS OF LAST YEAR).
(11) EVEN THE PRESENT UNACCEPTABLY HIGH PLATEAU RESULTS FROM INTENSIVE OPERATIONS BY THE CHINESE AND OURSELVES. WE CANNOT RELY ON THE FORMER BEING EVENLY MAINTAINED, AND THE LATTER ARE
A SEVERE STRAIN ON THE GARRISON AND POLICE.
(111) THE FLOW OF LEGALS IS STEADY AT 158 A DAY, OR ABOUT 55,800
A YEAR. THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO TAKE
ACTION TO REDUCE THE NUMBER SIGNIFICANTLY.
(IV) THIS MEANS WE COULD FACE A POPULATION INCREASE THIS YEAR,
FROM IMMIGRATION ALONE, OF AT LEAST 125,000 (EXCLUDING VIETNAMESE). THIS IS ON TOP OF AN INCREASE OF AT LEAST 180,000 LAST YEAR. WE CANNOT GO ON ABSORBING POPULATION AT THIS RATE WITHOUT VERY SERIOUS
CONSEQUENCES FOR WAGES, SOCIAL SERVICES, AND, ULTIMATELY, FOLITICAL STABILITY. A NEW FACTOR IS THAT THIS IS NOW REALISED BY THE PUBLIC,
BECAUSE THE STEADY ACCUMULATION OF NUMBERS HAS PASSED THE POINT AT
WHICH IMMIGRANTS CAN BE INVISIBLY ABSORBED. SQUATTER AREAS ARE
GROWING, THE 11'S ARE A NOTICEABLE AND UNRULY ELEMENT, AND FELLOW
FEELING FOR THEM HAS EVAPORATED.
(V) THE CERTAINTY OF INTERNATIONAL RECESSION, WHICH INEVITABLY WILL
HIT HONG KONG IS ALSO A MAJOR NEW FACTOR WHICH WORSENS THIS
PROSPECT.
(VI) BECAUSE OF (IV) AND (V) ABOVE PUBLIC OPINION HAS NOTICE ABL Y
HARDENED IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS, AND THERE IS INCREASING CRITICISM IN AND OUTSIDE THE MEDIA OF GOVERNMENT'S FAILURE TO ACT TO CHANGE
THE 'REACHED BASE'' POLICY. THIS CRITICISM WILL GROW AS RECESSION
ABROAD AFFECTS THE WORKING POPULATION HERE.
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/(VII)
Gists