TNAG-0907-FCO40-1117-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1979 — Page 31

CONFIDENTIAL

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Immigration: Resources greatly overstretched.

Poorer service

to the public and much greater difficulties in developing facilities for increased visits between Hong Kong and China and new points of entry.

Social Stability: Public belief that increase in robberies due to reduced police coverage; by employers that immigrants do not contribute to diversification and up-grading of industry; wages artifically kept down; private rents kept up; growing illegal hawking; financial and psychological burden on relatives. Fear of increased crime and tension because immigrants are misfits and poor workers.

2.

Most of these points could be used as appropriate in conversations with the delegation throughout the visit. I suggest the following points

for the meeting at Government House on 7 December:

A.

B.

Co

3.

In 1978/79 the population growth rate has doubled (2% to 4.1%) and the labour force more than doubled (2.8% to 6.1%) compared with 1977. This makes planning impossible and is bound to affect the development of Hong Kong in ways mutually beneficial to China and Hong Kong.

Permit holders are not coming on short visits. In the past 6 months 40% have been in family groups and 75% have had permits valid for a further 7 months or longer from their date of arrival in Hong Kong.

Illegals are a long term problem with only a long term full solution (greater prosperity). In the short and medium-term we must rely on China to continue to devote greatly increased resources to containing the problem. We are already asking London for further reinforcements.

In the very short term there is a severe danger that rumours of new Chinese measures in January 1980 will lead to a huge increase in attempts to come for the rest of this month, especially over the Christmas holiday. Already over 600 arrested on 6 December. Unless extra measures taken we fear an arrest rate of 2,000 a day or over at Christmas. *t that level controls on both sides could collapse.

These notes do not attempt to calculate the benefits/disbenefits to Guangdong (and China) of emigration to Hong Kong. However, the comparison is that if Guangdong (56 million - Mr Xi in a speech on 11 August) had suffered a comparable influx the provincial government would have had to find resources for almost 3 million more people in 2 years, i.e. a city about the size of Canton. A slogan for Mr Xi to use: 'I have walked on the streets of Hong Kong and they are paved with rock, not gold'.

cc Ag Governor

S for S S for I

SES

D of I DIS

Dof M

CO.

(I C Orr) A.P.A 6.12.79

FIAL