TNAG-0907-FCO40-1117-Immigration-from-China-to-Hong-Kong-1979 — Page 30

SCR LM 198/79

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Visit by Mr Xi Zhongxun: Immigration from China

The following summarizes the main effects on Hong Kong of immigration from China based on the past 2 year's influx of 265,000 (135,000 legal; 130,000 illegal). About 80% of the illegals are poorly qualified men between 15 and 29.

Population and Labour: Without the influx the natural rate of

population and labour force increase would have been about 2%; with it, from 5% to 6%. Unemployment has increased from 2.3% in March 1979 to 3.5% in September - 52% up in 7 months. (This is still low: at about 4.5%; the economy (not society) would be in good shape. In the 1975 recession it was about 9%).

But My Elliott said here was now a 5 year

Housing: Requires 63,000 extra rental flats. Public housing

set back by 2.5 years. Dramatic increase in squatters: the fires in October 1979 made over 7,000 homeless in areas which had 50% more squatters in 1979 than in 1976, rendence qualification

Medical and Health: Need 1 new hospital of 1,500 beds (larger than

the new Shatin hospital) an extra 100 doctors and over 800

nurses.

Education:

2,000 additional junior secondary places already.

Transport: 79% increase in passengers carried on all forms of

public transport between January 1978 and October 1979. Estimate made in 1976 of traffic use for 1981 already reached in 1978.

Longer queues and travelling time. As

planning becomes impossible the system starts to break down.

Social Welfare: A growing number of immigrants are now eligible for

Public Assistance and Disability allowances (1 year

residential qualification).

Culture and Recreation: Increased shortage of all facilities. Estimated $32 million increase in costs for 1979.

Food: Consumption of rice up 7.5% in January - October 1979 compared

with same period 1978. Increased food prices.

Garrison: Rough cost to Hong Kong of reinforcements and border

defences over 15 months of $330 million (not for use with Hr Xi).

CONFIDENCIAL

/Immigration

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