AF 323
CONFIDENTIAL
SCR 1/46 SP'A'
機密
LIC HONG KONG
LEGAL IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA
JUNE 1979
The daily average of legal arrivals from China without valid onward visas continued to fall during the month of June and it is becoming more apparent that China is attempting to control the situation and attain its frequently reported target of 150 per day. One isolated report said that this figure would be 'reduced by 30%' once the present backlog was cleared; the size of the backlog is not known, however. The daily average for June 1979 was 167, but rose slightly during the last week to 171. It is thought that this was merely a fluctuation rather than a significant increase.
2.
Recent travellers have provided collateral to the earlier reports that in mid-May 1979, the Central authorities ordered the Shenzhen (c. Shumchun) Border Defence Inspection Station to limit the number of emigrants departing for Hong Kong. A traveller has reported that on 25 May, the Guangdong (Kwangtung) Provincial authorities instructed all Provincial Public Security Bureaux to cease processing emigration applications until further notice.
No new applications would be considered until outstanding applications had been cleared. It has also been reported that applications to emigrate to South East Asian countries are no longer being approved as these emigrants normally remain in Hong Kong.
3.
A point of concern is that travellers have continued to report that prospective applicants for emigration are being advised to choose Macau as their destination, rather than Hong Kong, as approval would be more likely. The Chinese authorities will not consider applications for Hong Kong unless there is a special reason.
4.
Reports thus confirm that the Chinese authorities are attempting to control legal emigration to Hong Kong. The Chinese Vice Foreign Minister ZHANG Wenjin informed H. M. Ambassador in Peking on 25 June that the flow had been curtailed, numbers had fallen and that this trend would continue.
Assessment
5.
It is assessed that the daily average of legal arrivals from China without onward visas will continue to decrease until it reaches an average of about 150 a day, China's reported target. It may thereafter fall to about 100 a day, if the 30% reduction is in fact implemented. Whether the Chinese Government will then of their own volition take the figure down even further is impossible to predict.
CONFIDENTIAL
/cont'd.
機密
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