TNAG-0741-FCO40-945-Relations-between-China-and-Hong-Kong-1978 — Page 81

PEKING. TL 735

TELE-LETTER

TO: F.C.O.

TOK YO

MOSCOW

RESTRICTED

REFERENCE: 014/2

RESTRICTED

47/25

2 2 FEB 1978

! Então China latiment.

Ges jao

2.

cc. also (besides & below) by

Y

bag

to Chancuri's Deli

3 of Sommel

Istraband

22 FEBRUARY 1978

2014

FOLLOWING FOR: R E ALLEN ESQ,

FAR EASTERN DEPARTMENT, F.C.O.

JE HOLMES ESQ,

CHANCERY,

MOSCOW.

TOKYO.

FROM:

GARSIDE,

PEKING.

CHINA: FIFTH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS: THE SCENE IS SET.

1. THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS (N.P.C.) WHOSE OPENING ON 26 FEBRUARY HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED, CAN BE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPORTANT IMPACT ON THREE MAJOR QUESTIONS:

AND

THE DEGREE TO WHICH POLITICS WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY THE CONSTITUTION, THE BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN THE GROUPS HEADED BY CHAIRMAN HUA KUO-FENG AND VICE-PREMIER TENG HSIAO-P' ING, THE KIND OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES WHICH WILL SHAPE CHINA IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. BUT, THAT SAID, THE SIGNS ARE THAT, LIKE THE ELEVENTH PARTY CONGRESS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILESTONE ALONG THE WAY TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POST-MAO ORDER RATHER THAN AN ACT OF FINAL DEFINITION

2. ALL THE PROVINCES. MUNICIPALITIES AND AUTONOMOUS REGIONS HAVING HELD THEIR OWN PEOPLE'S CONGRESS, THE DELEGATES TO THE N.P.C. HAVE BEEN CHOSEN CONSTITUTIONALLY. THE PRIOR ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE CONGRESS IS A SIGN OF CONFIDENCE, ABSENT IN 1975 FOR THE FOURTH CONGRESS. BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE IMPORTANT POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES HANGING OVER THE CONGRESS. THE LEADERSHIP OF SEVERAL IMPORTANT PROVINCES ELECTED BY THE LOCAL CONGRESS HAVE A PROVISIONAL AIR. THE MOSI, GLARINGABYTE HELD BY

EXAMPLE BEING IN

HRI AY WET