시
CHINA:
FIFTH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS:
THE SCENE IS SET.
1. THE NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS (N.P.C.) WHOSE OPENING ON 26 FEBRUARY HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED, CAN BE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPORTANT IMPACT ON THREE MAJOR QUESTIONS:
AND
THE DEGREE TO WHICH POLITICS WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY THE CONSTITUTION, THE BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN THE GROUPS HEADED BY CHAIRMAN HUA KUO-FENG AND VICE-PREMIER TENG HSIAO-P'ING, THE KIND OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES WHICH WILL SHAPE CHINA
IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. BUT, THAT SAID, THE SIGNS ARE THAT, LIKE THE ELEVENTH PARTY CONGRESS IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILESTONE ALONG THE WAY TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POST-MAO ORDER RATHER THAN AN ACT OF FINAL DEFINITION.
2. ALL THE PROVINCES, MUNICIPALITIES AND AUTONOMOUS REGIONS HAVING HELD THEIR OWN PEOPLE'S CONGRESS, THE DELEGATES TO THE N.P.C. HAVE BEEN CHOSEN CONSTITUTIONALLY. THE PRIOR ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE CONGRESS IS A SIGN OF CONFIDENCE ABSENT IN 1975 FOR THE FOURTH CONGRESS. BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE IMPORTANT POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES HANGING OVER THE CONGRESS. THE LEADERSHIP OF SEVERAL IMPORTANT PROVINCES ELECTED BY THE LOCAL CONGRESS HAVE A PROVISIONAL AIR, THE MOST GLARING EXAMPLE BEING IN KWANGTUNG WHERE THE POST OF FIRST SECRETARY IS HELD BY WEI KUO-CH'ING, WHOSE DUTIES AS DIRECTOR OF THE GENERAL POLITICAL DEPARTMENT PREVENT HIM FROM RUNNING THE PROVINCE. A CAMPAIGN, TO PURGE FROM THE LEADERSHIP AT ALL LEVELS THOSE WHOSE STAND IN RECENT YEARS HAS BEEN EQUIVOCAL, MENACES FIVE OR SIX MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO ITSELF. A CALL FOR A PURGE OF THE ARMED FORCES HAS ISSUED FROM A HIGH LEVEL ONLY THREE WEEKS BEFORE THE OPENING OF THE CONGRESS. TENG HSIAO-P’ING'S VISITS TO BURMA AND NEPAL HAD ELECTIONEERING OVERTONES, APPARENTLY BEING SHORT ON SUBSTANCE AND LONG ON DOMESTIC PUBLICITY. WHILE HUA MANAGED A TOUR OF A PEKING STEELWORKS, TENG WAS CAPTURING MOST OF THE T.V. NEWS, EIGHT NIGHTS IN SUCCESSION, BEING TREATED AS A PREMIER AS HE WALKED AS CHOU EN-LAI ONCE WALKED, WITH A PRESIDENT AND THEN A KING, AMONG PAGODAS, PALM-TREES, AND PALACES.
3.
ON THE EVE OF THE CONGRESS, THE PEOPLE'S DAILY HAS PUBLISHED A LONG PIECE EXTOLLING THE VIRTUES OF VETERAN CADRES, AND PAYING HONOUR TO TENG. THIS RAISES EXPECTATIONS THAT VETERANS WILL FEATURE LARGELY IN THE LINE-UP, BUT THE CHINESE CONTACTS OF THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY ARE NOW KEEPING MUM ON PERSONNEL APPOINTMENTS. THE WORD ON THE CONSTITUTION IS THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT NO BIG CHANGES. ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL QUESTIONS IT WOULD BE SURPRISING IF RADICAL REFORMS WERE TO BE ANNOUNCED AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF RECENT FACTIONAL IN-FIGHTING. ON ALL THESE THEMES THE CONGRESS WILL TELL ITS OWN STORY, BUT EVEN WHEN IT CLOSES THE LARGER TALE WILL ONLY HAVE BEEN HALF TOLD.
4. I AM COPYING THIS TELEGRAPHICALLY TO HOLMES IN MOSCOW
AND CHANCERY IN TOKYO, AND BY BAG TO THE POLITICAL ADVISER
IN HONG KONG.
F.E.D. REGISTRY PLEASE COPY BY BAG TO MILLINGTON IN WASHINGTON
AND TO USUAL LONDON ADDRESSEES.
SIGNED..... R R GARSIDE
RESTRICTED
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