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Mr Murray
cc: PS/Lord Goronwy-Roberts
Mr Cortazzi
EESD HK&GD
CHINA: FIFTH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS
HKK 02011
RECENER
2 7 FEB 1978
OFFICER
INDEX
No
NO. 21
PA
RECIOTRY Action Taken
1.
Mr Garside has just sent us a brief but excellent tele-letter setting the scene for the National People's Congress which opens in Peking on 26 February. In underlining its importance, he
· rightly points out that it is to be seen as "another milestone along the way to the establishment of a post-Mao order rather than an act of final definition". The long-term goal is clear; the likely upheaval on the way there, as always in China, are not.
2. His reference to Teng Hsiao-p'ing's recent television spect- acular is also much to the point. Teng's absence from China in the run-up to the Congress suggests that he was confident about the allocation of the top jobs: Teng has been strongly tipped for Premier, though this cannot be taken for granted; Hua Kuo-feng's position would, I think, be safeguarded within the hierarchy if he retained the secretaryship of the Communist Party while the posi- tion of titular Head of State (if its restitution is actually brought about) went to a respected but somewhat enfeebled figure such as the present Defence Minister, Yeh Chien-ying.
3. The economic reports to the Congress can be expected to confirm the trends we have already noted; self-reliance coupled with greater willingness to look to the West for advanced technol- ogy, so as to speed up the growth and modernisation of the Chinese economy as a whole.
23 February 1978
Lichard, Sammil
RC Samuel
Far Eastern Department
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