TNAG-0616-FCO40-764-Policy-of-UK-on-status-of-Hong-Kong-1977 — Page 55

CONFIDENTIAL

DSR 11C

In the much longer term, China is likely to become an

She will have well over a quarter

active world power.

of the world's population, large mineral resources and an

industrious work force which would probably still be

subject to an exceptional amount of central direction.

With a powerful industrial base and large and well equipped

military forces she would present a picture quite different

to that of present day China, not only to her neighbours

but further afield in Asia and elsewhere.

:

10. It is already government policy in all Western

countries to allow and in all countries but one (the

US) actively to promote

the sale of advanced civil

technology and equipment to the Soviet Union despite the

far greater military and political threat posed to the West by that country. There are critics of this policy, but it

is generally argued in favour of it that the engagement of

the Soviet Union in trade with the West and the

technological dependence, limited although it is, which

flows from it is a far more effective constraint on Soviet

foreign policy and attitudes to the West than a policy of

commercial isolation would be. The same considerations

apply mutatis mutandis to China. The only doubt which

arises, therefore, is how far the West can or should be

more relaxed about the sale of military equipment or

technology (or civil technology with military implications

to China than to the Soviet Union. The main reasons against

a more relaxed attitude are that China would in future

pose a serious military threat to her neighbours and the

West should do nothing to advance that day;

and that a

/stronger

CONFIDENTIAL

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