CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
stronger China could challenge Western interest in the
Third World.
11. The second argument can be dismissed fairly simply.
It will be very many years before China could have a
significant distant-water conventional military capability
and very many more before it would match that of the
advanced industrialized democracies (if they so chose).
In this kind of time scale (at least fifty years) whether
or not the West now sold defence equipment to China would
make no significant difference to China's future distant
water capability. Helping to improve China's industrial
base will make it easier for her to influence other
by offering military as
countries in the Third World
well as financial assistance.
detriment
How!
M
This could be to the West's
although it could also usefully counter Soviet
influence. But it follows from the sale of civil rather
than military technology and equipment, As a rising
industrial power China will in any case be in a position
to provide the kind of military assistance many Third World
countries are likely to want regardless of Western defence
sales policies.
12.
The first argument is much more difficult.
There are
reasons for discounting the danger to Western interests
from contributing to Chinese military development:-
(a) The Sino-Soviet dispute may become less bitter,
but hostility between the two countries is deeply
rooted for historical and geographical reasons and
atthidas the Chinese international perceptions of their own
lise
L
/interests
CONFIDENTIAL
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