CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
In the much longer term, China is likely to become an
She will have well over a quarter
active world power.
of the world's population, large mineral resources and an
industrious work force which would probably still be
subject to an exceptional amount of central direction.
With a powerful industrial base and large and well equipped
military forces she would present a picture quite different
to that of present day China, not only to her neighbours
but further afield in Asia and elsewhere.
:
10. It is already government policy in all Western
countries to allow and in all countries but one (the
US) actively to promote
the sale of advanced civil
technology and equipment to the Soviet Union despite the
far greater military and political threat posed to the West by that country. There are critics of this policy, but it
is generally argued in favour of it that the engagement of
the Soviet Union in trade with the West and the
technological dependence, limited although it is, which
flows from it is a far more effective constraint on Soviet
foreign policy and attitudes to the West than a policy of
commercial isolation would be. The same considerations
apply mutatis mutandis to China. The only doubt which
arises, therefore, is how far the West can or should be
more relaxed about the sale of military equipment or
technology (or civil technology with military implications
to China than to the Soviet Union. The main reasons against
a more relaxed attitude are that China would in future
pose a serious military threat to her neighbours and the
West should do nothing to advance that day;
and that a
/stronger
CONFIDENTIAL
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