TNAG-0616-FCO40-764-Policy-of-UK-on-status-of-Hong-Kong-1977 — Page 23

CONFIDENTIAL,

DSR 11C

lead and the Chinese will (like the Soviet Union)

continue to seek Western assistance. This should

increase her practical interest in co-operating

`in certain areas of international affairs

economic affairs and the UN.

eg

13.

Against this, however:

(a) As China becomes stronger and feels less

vulnerable militarily both in conventional

terms and with the development of her strategic

nuclear capability - her greater self-confidence

vis-à-vis the Soviet Union could lead her to

attach less importance to good relations with the

West or to stability in Asia.

(b) It is almost inevitable that so large a

country as China with an ideology alien to most

of her neighbours would, if she acquired the

military capability to overwhelm them, be seen

by them as a serious threat.

need to protect themselves.

They would see a

So long as Japan,

South Korea and Taiwan can confidently rely on the

United States, they will feel uneasy but not over-

alarmed by China's military development. To the

extent that the US commitment to their defence is

in doubt -- and over the next twenty years it may

increasingly be so for Japan, let alone the other

two they will seek alternative arrangements if

/they

CONFIDENTIAL

D

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