CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
14.
they can. In the last resort the Japanese might
be forced into a considerable increase in defence
expenditure and military capability and the
'development of Japan as a regional power. This
could increase the instability of the area. It
could also lead to an increase in Soviet influence
among China's other neighbours (eg among ASEAN
countries).
Apart from these major considerations we must
accept that the general direction of China's development
will be little affected by whether the West sells her
military equipment and technology. All that will be
affected will be the speed with which she is able to
improve her capability. In some cases the sale of
technology and equipment could make a quantum jump
possible (eg aircraft carriers, long-range aircraft of
certain types, tanks, certain electronic equipment); in
very many others one is talking of a difference of only
a few years (perhaps ten) between what the Chinese could
do without and with Western help. And to the extent
that any single Western country were less strict in
withholding military equipment than the rest, the
difference would be correspondingly reduced.
15.
The above discussion leads to the conclusions
that:
nity
(a) ng defence sales to China would create a
direct threat to the security of the United
Kingdom, or indeed increase the risks for Hong
Kong.
/(b)
CONFIDENTIAL
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