CONFIDENTIAL,
DSR 11C
lead and the Chinese will (like the Soviet Union)
continue to seek Western assistance. This should
increase her practical interest in co-operating
`in certain areas of international affairs
economic affairs and the UN.
eg
13.
Against this, however:
(a) As China becomes stronger and feels less
vulnerable militarily both in conventional
terms and with the development of her strategic
nuclear capability - her greater self-confidence
vis-à-vis the Soviet Union could lead her to
attach less importance to good relations with the
West or to stability in Asia.
(b) It is almost inevitable that so large a
country as China with an ideology alien to most
of her neighbours would, if she acquired the
military capability to overwhelm them, be seen
by them as a serious threat.
need to protect themselves.
They would see a
So long as Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan can confidently rely on the
United States, they will feel uneasy but not over-
alarmed by China's military development. To the
extent that the US commitment to their defence is
in doubt -- and over the next twenty years it may
increasingly be so for Japan, let alone the other
two they will seek alternative arrangements if
/they
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