TNAG-0507-FCO40-572-Development-of-medical-and-health-services-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 136

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by the Government of about 20 doctors per year from

overseas. On the basis of these assumptions they

estimated that there were likely to be some 970 doctors

in the Government service by 1982. Their calculations

also show that by that time wastage and recruitment (on

the assumptions above) would be more or less in balance

in that the net recruitment might be of the order of

only 10 doctors.

9.4

This shortfall may in practice be expected

If in

to be greater than forecast because the figures show

that the Government's recruitment of overseas doctors

has recently been averaging only 6 per year. If this

continues, wastage would exceed recruitment.

addition the number of consulting rooms were to be

increased, the shortfall of doctors would correspondingly

increase. It also appears that the number of doctors

likely to be needed for the health services, health

education, family planning services and the treatment

of drug addiction would be larger then originally envisaged.

9.5

Assuming the completion of the general and

psychiatric wings of the Princess Margaret at Lai Chi

Kok, and the new general hospitals at Sha Tin and Tuen

Mun and assuming that the need for temporary and sub-

standard beds in existing institutions will continue

at its end-1972 level, the requirement for doctors to

carry out the functions of the Medical and Health

Department would be:

CONFIDENTIAL #