G.F. 323
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by the Government of about 20 doctors per year from
overseas. On the basis of these assumptions they
estimated that there were likely to be some 970 doctors
in the Government service by 1982. Their calculations
also show that by that time wastage and recruitment (on
the assumptions above) would be more or less in balance
in that the net recruitment might be of the order of
only 10 doctors.
9.4
This shortfall may in practice be expected
If in
to be greater than forecast because the figures show
that the Government's recruitment of overseas doctors
has recently been averaging only 6 per year. If this
continues, wastage would exceed recruitment.
addition the number of consulting rooms were to be
increased, the shortfall of doctors would correspondingly
increase. It also appears that the number of doctors
likely to be needed for the health services, health
education, family planning services and the treatment
of drug addiction would be larger then originally envisaged.
9.5
Assuming the completion of the general and
psychiatric wings of the Princess Margaret at Lai Chi
Kok, and the new general hospitals at Sha Tin and Tuen
Mun and assuming that the need for temporary and sub-
standard beds in existing institutions will continue
at its end-1972 level, the requirement for doctors to
carry out the functions of the Medical and Health
Department would be:
CONFIDENTIAL #