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Mr Jale
Sir D Watson
Watson
DEFENCE REVIEW: HONG KONG
1.
•
We owe the Governor a definitive reply to his telegram no. 1143. I think we should also prepare him for the atmosphere that he is likely to meet in his talks here later this month, and
suggest how he might tackle them.
2.
The Defence Secretary's statement of 25 November, together with the unattributable briefing which he gave subsequently, does not leave much unsaid about our intentions on the size of the Hong Kong garrison or on Hong Kong's contribution. We have not yet heard directly from Hong Kong how this has been received, other than a report (Hong Kong telegram no. 1209) of a patently false story in the South China Morning Post. But according to The Times there is considerable concern there, and it would be surprising if this
were not so.
3.
At the same time the attitude of Ministers in the UK is very hard, and we must warn the Governor of the need to walk carefully.
4.
On the question of the cost of the forces, I have heard from the Ministry of Defence (Mr Bryars's letter of 2 December) that they hope to be able to provide new figures before the Governor's visit. This will bring the cost up to date at the end of September 1974. It will therefore provide a better basis for calculation, though the most significant figures will of course. be those for the beginning of 1976. The Ministry of Defence have also been refining their plans for the forces that will actually be needed on the ground. I doubt whether the Governor will want to hold detailed discussions on these figures but they will be a necessary element in his talks with Lord Goronwy-Roberts.
5.
The other question, arising from the amount that has already been said about the Defence Review in public, is whether we should stick to the Governor's advice that the definitive consultations should be put off until May. From this end it would
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