TNAG-0476-FCO40-541-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 15

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guarantee that they would mobilise to NATO's timetable).

(See Annex B for details).

10. The Soviet Union has emerged as a maritime super power by

developing a large modern well-equipped fleet of cruisers, destroyers

and escorts, two aircraft carriers under construction, over 1,000

naval aircraft and some 350 operational submarines of which over

120 are nuclear powered. The Warsaw Pact's building rate for

nuclear powered submarines is now twice that of NATO. The numbers

of Warsaw Pact and NATO surface ships are broadly similar (see

Annex C); but this comparison is misleading, as the Allied strength

includes a very much higher proportion of older ships and

substantially fewer seaborne missile systems. The Soviet threat

at sea comes more from the very large Soviet submarine force which

outnumbers the Alliance's force by nearly 2:1; and from the

substantial building programme of the Soviet Union which is improving

the quality and average age of the Soviet fleet compared with those

of the Alliance. The maritime balance has shifted, and is continuing

to shift, markedly in favour of the Warsaw Pact. NATO's maritime

forces at immediate readiness for forward defence in the EASTLANT

area (which are mainly British) are already heavily outnumbered.

11. Soviet GNP 18 rising at some 4-5% a year in real terms; and

though Soviet defence spending is now declining as a proportion of

GNP it still constitutes about 8% (on conservative estimates), and

has been rising at about 3% a year in real terms. One third of this

budget is being spent on R&D, so Warsaw Pact forces will continue

to be equipped with the most modern weapons.

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