TNAG-0476-FCO40-541-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 16

SECRETECRET

Alliance Strategy

NATO's military strategy is defensive.

It is expressed in terms

The aim

12.

of deterrence, flexibility in response and forward defence.

of deterrence is to convince the Soviet Union that the price of

attacking the West would outweigh any gain, and that ultimately

any aggressor risks an esclation of the conflict to total nuclear

In Alliance terms deterrence is directed towards preserving the

territorial integrity of the Alliance as a whole; but each member

looks to the Alliance as the best means of ensuring the security of

its own national territory. This must be, - and certainly is in

war.

the case of the UK, the ultimate responsibility of a soverign

power.

13.

and the

For deterrence to be effective, NATO needs to display a

substantial military capability, both in offence and defence;

will to use it if necessary. For this reason Soviet perception of

Allied cohesion and commitment is of critical importance. The will

to fight cannot be quantified, and relative military capability is

as much a matter of judgement as of analysis; equally their credibility,

and hence their deterrent effect on an adversary, cannot be assessed

with precision. So the effectiveness of a deterrent policy is a

matter of judgement by both parties, and can cover a wide spectrum

of capability and intent. And if what is needed for adequate

deterrence of a stronger adversary is underestimated, the price

ultimately paid is uniquely high..

14. In the period of US Nuclear supremacy allied strategy was

based on "massive retaliation" with an associated "military trip

wire" provided by the Alliance conventional forces. However, in

the 1960s, the attainment by the Soviet Union of nuclear parity

with the United States, and especially a second strike capability,

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SEGARRET