TNAG-0476-FCO40-541-Strength-of-garrison-in-Hong-Kong-1974 — Page 14

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the world balance of forces in favour of the Communist system

and economic uncertainty for the West, the Soviet Union may be

able to use political, economic, subversive and military means of

influence to promote conditions in which Western Europe may be

gradually deprived of credible United States military support

without providing a substitute of its own and without developing the

political and military co-operation necessary to repel Soviet

pressure.

The threat is that the Soviet Union may thus acquire

a position of such dominance in vital areas that it will be able

to achieve many of its objectives without resort to hostilities.

The Military Balance

8. The Soviet Union has achieved nuclear parity with the United

States; and with the aim of at least maintaining this parity is

developing new strategic nuclear weapons for deployment during this

decade, including four new types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), a new class of ballistic missile submarine with

a 4000 nautical mile range missile, and multiple independently

targetted re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).

9. The Warsaw Pact has a marked superiority over the Alliance in

manpower and conventional weapons. In Central Europe the Pact has

some 15,500 main battle tanks to the Alliance's 6,000; more than

3,000 tactical aircraft to the Alliance's 1,400; twice as many field

guns; and some 20% more soldiers than the Alliance and some 30-40%

more soldiers in fighting units. After reinforcement these

for example within 30 days of

disparities would become greater:

mobilisation the Pact could increase its tank force by 7,000 tanks

compared with 750 Alliance tanks;

its field guns by 2,600 compared

with the Alliance's 440; and its manpower in fighting divisions by

300,000 compared with the Alliance's 130,000. (These reinforcement

figures do not include French reinforcements because there is no

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