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some months at least. So long as it does the campaign against the
Hong Hon doverment will persist and negotiations on any terms
short of capitulation to Chinese demands will be out of the question.
Who lesue of the Chinese ultimatum of 20 August about liong kong and
the subsequent sucking of the British Mission in Pelling at its
al'termath demonstrate how uncompromising the Chinese attitude has
become and how fruitless negotiations would be in this atmosphere.
It cannot be excluded, howev r, that situation (b) may arise should
some of the regional areas break away from control by Feking and pass
under the leadership of Lore rational Party or Army groups.
occurred in Kwangtung, the Frovince bordering en Hong Kong, it might
De possible to arrange a modus vivendi which would relieve some of
the pressures on the Colony. So far, however, the evidence
available shows that the Army remains in control along the Frontier
and subject to Headquarters in Poking. Further back, however, in
If this
This
Canton there has been considerable disorder and this could
conceivably spread throughout the whole Province. It is, however,
more likely that such a situation might arise after the Cultural
Revolution; we consider this below. Accordingly, at present tho only situation on which negotiations seem possible is (c). pre-supposes that the campain against the Hong Kong Goverment
In such circumstances, continues and is increasingly successful.
realistic negotiations with the Chinese rould be very difficult. If they were in the ascendant in Hong Kong to such an extent that
we were forced to start withdrawing, it is almost certain that the
Chinese would press their advantage to the maximum with the intention
or achieving the greatest possible victory for themselves and
humiliation for us.
"Negotiations" would only start after the
There is the farther
Chinese had taken over elTective control of Hong Hong and they would
then doubtless be very long and tortuous.
point that any indication that we were contemplating nogociation
anu withdrawal would be the signal for un increase in pres.ure.
This was precisely the situation in Macao which produced disastrous
consequences for the Portuguese.
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