TNAG-0043-FCO40-79-Future-Sovereignty-of-Hong-Kong-Defence-Review-Working-Party-1968 — Page 179

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6. Although the Cultural

evolution is likely to continue for some

time, probably well into next year, it will not last forever.

We

But eventually

carmot predict with any certainty what will follow. after Mao's death or his departure from the political scene it is

possible that a more orthodox and pragmatic government will emerge. This might well take the form of an authoritarian Party ormilitary rule. Its first task would be to re-assert central control, assuming

that the confusion resulting from the Cultural Revolution still persisted. They would, however, be unlikely to reverse China's general policy or hostility towards the West. Dut over a period hostility might gradually be modified as has happened in the Soviet Union. We believe that such a process would take some time (probably decades rather than years). government might be prepared to tolerate liong Kong's existence while. More pressing internal problems were solved, but it is unlikely that it could make such an open gesture towards colonialism as re-negotiating the lease of the New Territories when it expires in 1997. It might, however, be possible at some stage before then to negotiate an orderly withdrawal from Hong Kong.

7.

During this period such a

There is an alternative possibility that the Cultural evolution will end in the disintegration of China into regional groupings acting independently of the central government.

Such a situation

Under such

could occur without any formal declaration of independence and would be reminiscent of the warlord period in the 1950s. conditions it is conceivable that wangtung might fall under the control or a local leader prepared to act independently of Feking. In such circumstances, it might be possible to negotiate with this loader either to assure the continued existence of Hong Kong (which would be of great economic benefit to Awangtung) or for an orderly withdrawal. we consider that this is a possibility which

must be borne in mind but that it does not at present seem to be a

likely outcome of the Cultural hevolution.

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