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British hands for the time being so as to continue to receive economic benefit from it; they are afraid to risk nucle.r retaliation by the United States or even the United Kingdom which they might think would follow a direct military attack; it is part of the Maoist creed that "liberation" should be the result of local initiative, springing from strong indigenous roots, and should not be imposed from outside. These inhibitions on a direct Chinese military attack do not exclude the possibility of their sending in military forces on the pretext of restoring order if the situation in Hong Kong got completely out of control. Assuming this does not occur, we consider the most likely Chinese policy over the next few months will be to encourage the continuation or subversion within the Colony and to try to improve and consolidate local Communist organisations. 5. In order to avoid the possibility of prolonged disturbances which would have very dama ing effects economically and might eventually make our position untenable, would it be possible to
It is assumed tilat no negotiate a withdrawal with the Chinese?
negotiated withdrawal would be possible in China had launched a Military attack as negotiations would require a pause in the fighting which would only be likely to occur in conditions of stale-
Such conditions would be inconceivable in view of Chinese
There are three other
mate.
overwhelming local military superiority.
types of situation in which negotiations for such a withdrawal
might be contemplateä.
These are:-
(a) a situation of stability or relative stability in both
Hong Kong and China during which the British Government might decide to end the colonial status of long long;
(b)
(c)
a situation in which Kwangtung broke away from control
by Peking;
a situation of such Communist-inspired confusion in Hong Kong that it was no longer possible for a British
administration to remain there.
(a) is highly unlikely in the near future.
The Cultural Revolution
shows no sign of coming to un cnd and seems certain to continue for
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