CO537-4998 — Page 250

4.

(iii) The Governor considers that the Chinese members of

the Police Force cannot be regarded as wholly reliable in the emergencies envisaged though, provided they have adequate military backing, the Police could be relied upon against a mere influx of refugees.

(iv) Except for a few Europeans and Eurasians an Auxiliary

Police Force could only be drawn from Chinese and therefore unreliable sources.

(v) The recruitment of a separate force would certainly

prejudice recruitment for the Defence Force and would generally be most unsatisfactory.

In a recent assessment of the problems of dealing with an influx of refugees (see 2(B) above) the Governor has, after consultation with his local Defence Committee, reported as

follows:

od Sk

(i) Saturation point as regards food, water supplies,

maintenance of law and order, etc., will be reached when the present population increases by another 100,000. For a few months a total increase of 250,000 might be supported by rigid rationing etc. Any further addition would spell possible disaster.

(ii) There is no sign of a serious influx yet, but the

frontier should be closed at once as soon as any sign appears.

(iii) This operation will involve the use of wiring to

canalise entry points. But serious objections exist to beginning wiring now except in places where it could be done ostensibly for other reasons.

(iv) Effective closure would require use of three infantry battalions in addition to available Police and reconstituted Defence Force.

(v) If the refugee influx consists mainly of civilians,

the closure of the frontier could probably be effected without bloodshed.

But if bloodshed

occurs serious repercussions would follow, e.g. an attempt to foment a general strike, which would strain security forces (already guarding the frontier) to the utmost.

(vi) The full garrison and fully recruited and trained

Defence Force would be inadequate to cope with a situation in which, with civil war being waged in the vicinity of the frontier, large bodies of armed troops of either of the opposed forces might attempt to seek asylum in Hong Kong, and large reinforcements would be needed. Bloodshed would be almost inevit- able. The Governor does not at present, however, consider this a likely eventuality.

(vii) The Governor doubts whether fully effective closure

of the sea frontier (approximately 200 miles in length) is possible, but reasonably effective closure might be obtained by the use of Police patrol craft, the small number of Naval auxiliary craft available,

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