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2 June 1949
JIC(FE) (49)21(Final)
Communists will exert pressure by basing P.L.A. formations on the frontier, whilst at the same time reaping the benefits of British trade relations there and elsewhere in China.
Internal Threat
17.
The most immediate danger during the "cold war" period would be the intensification of subversive activity within the Colony. Methods which the enemy might be expected to adopt may be summarised as follows:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(a)
(e)
widespread propaganda, the main themes being return of the Colony to China, loyalty of all Chinese to China and general incitement to anti-British activities; instructions to Communist elements in the Colony to stir up unrest and bring about strikes in essential services;
3
efforts to suborn the loyalty of Locally Enlisted Personnel, civilian employees of the Services and the Police Force: those having family connections on the mainland would be particulary susceptible;
isolated attempts at sabotage;
interference with food supplies from China, e.g. rice, of which fairly large quantities are smuggled in and fresh vegetables of which 30% of the Colony's consumption comes from China;
(f) Increased banditry, coupled with murder of Europeans. Any or all of the above measures might be instituted at any time. 18. The possibility of refugees and armed Nationalist deserters crossing the frontier is ever present, and if this developed on a large scale it would constitute a serious threat to the Colony's internal stability.
19. In addition to the regular P.L.A. troops on the frontier armed bandit incursions across the frontier will be attempted. Although there is no shortage of men, it is unlikely that bands would number more than 150 and that more than two or three groups would be engaged at any one time, owing to the lack of objectives for this type of operation. Their probable targets would be military and police posts, and road and railway traffic and commun--
ications.
Air Threat
20. The air threat to Hong Kong would be limited to reconnaissance by Communist aircraft and possibly Soviet aircraft using airfields in China for refuelling. The Communist Air Force is not known to have any experience of this type of work and the threat from them is not
Such reconnaissance would be on a small scale likely to be serious.. and might occur at any time when weather conditions permit either "excusable" flying over Hong Kong, photography of the Colony from Chinese air, or sneak photography.
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