2 June 1949
GENERAL
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ANNEX
THE THREATS TO HONG KONG
JIC (FE) (49)21(Final)
1.
The threats to the Colony of Hong Kong can occur under three separate conditions and they may arise in sequence. They are
as follows:·
(a)
during the "cold war" period;
(b)
during the period in which the Communists display their intention to secure the return of the Colony, with or without force;
2.
(c)
in the event of a war between the Allies, the Soviet Union and the Chinese Communist Party.
The "cold war" which is already in existence between the Soviet Union and the Atlantic Pact Powers, now extends to the Far East. It results from the clash between the advancing Chinese Communists and the foreign, in particular British, political and business interests in the country including the existence of a British Colony in Hong Kong and the New Territories. The rendition cf Hong Kong to China is undoubtedly one of the aims of the Chinese Communists as it is of any Chinese Government. Nevertheless they may well consider that, during the pericd of their consclidation of Scuth China, the value of the Colony as a trade entrepot cutweighs the desirability of any attempt to expel the British and take over its administration.
3.
Should the Chinese Communists decide to secure the return of the Colony to China we consider that they would attempt to achieve it by subversive methods, backed by a show of force on the border. Should these tactics be unsuccessful then, as a last resort, regular troops of the People's Liberation Army (P.L.A.) might assault the Colony.
Although the Communists might affect to regard this as an incident it would be an act of war.
4.
A war between the Soviet Union and the Allies in the fore- seeable future will undoubtedly result in the Chinese Communists being allied to the former. In such an event it is likely that the P.L.A. would, in general, take its direction from the Soviet High Command, and that it would undertake an attack cn the Cclcny.
5.
The speed with which (b) will follow (a)
depends upon:·
the activities of the Communist organisation within Hong Kong;
(1)
(11)
the value of Hong Kong to the Communists while under British rule;
(iii)
the degree of control exercised by the U.S.S.R. over the Chinese Communists.
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