Secretary
DRAFT
Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East)
THE THREATS TO HONGKONG
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The Joint Intelligence Committee have examined the report by the Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East) entitled "The Threats to Hong Kong" and have made the following general comments thereon.
2.
The paper states as its first conclusion:
"(a) The return of Hong Kong to China is an important
part of the Chinese Communist programme.
(b) They will do their best to achieve this without
recourse to open attack on the Colony.
As regards 2 (a) no time schedule is given. Evidence obtained from Communist documents captured in Hong Kong tends only to show that though the taking over of Hong Kong may we be the important ultimate aim, it is not , an immediate plan. Indeed, the Joint Intelligence Committee bat sounds complant! have seen no evidence even for the existence of the general ultimate aim, though they do not therefore conclude that it does not exist.
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4.
As regards 2 (b), it is clear that the communists are seeking every means of stepping up their organisation and grip onChinese resistance in Hong Kong, as indeed they are doing in all the centres of Chinese overseas and as the Kuomintang did before them. The Joint Intelligence Committee have however no evidence that the organisation which the Communists have built up is being geared to early action against British rule in Hong Kong. On the contraty, if the Communists have taken a decision, the evidence indicates that the trading value of Hong Kong in British hands is of such importance to them that they ape willing for some time to let the status quo remain unmolested. The Joint Intelligence Committee cannot tell how long the Communists are likely to do so, but consider that the delay may well be considerable.
5.
The Joint Intelligence Committee have examined this evidence in great detail in their latest fortnightly review of the situation in South China.
6.
Throughout the paper and particularly in paragraphs 43 to 48 of the Annex, reference is made to conditions which might prevail in the event of war between the Soviet Union and the Western powers. It is felt that this is outside the scope of the present study, and should be omitted. The question of full scale war with the Soviet Union in the Far East is under
examination and will form part of a gevised version of the Combined Anglo/American Appreciation.
7.
Detailed comments are at innex.
+ JIC (FE) (49) 21 (Final)
JIC (49) 44/4
JIC (48) 100
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