CO537-4999 — Page 61

TOP SECRET

1.

2.

N

ANNEX

DETAILED COMMENTS BY THE JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

ON

J.I.C. (TE) PAPER "THE THREATS TO HONG KONG"

Paragraph 3.

(a) In the last sentence, it is suggested that

approximately 150,000 Chinese Communist troops might reach the Hong Kong area. It is felt that in fact there is no limit to the number of troops which the Communists can deploy in the area, although the number actually employed in an assault on Hong Kong will be very limited owing to the narrowness of the front.

(b)

---

Ealist

In view of the latest information the date by which the main forces will reach th Canton area is now estimated to be mid-August, and not early July. This comment also applics to the last line of paragraph 14 of the Annex.

Paragraph 4.

(a)

(b)

redalt

It is assumed that the phrase "During this period" at the beginning of the paragraph refers to the Cold War period as covered by paragraphs 14-21 of the Annex.

It is considered that guerilla raids across the frontier (vide last line of page 1) are most unlikely once the Communist regular forces have closed on Hong Kong. The infiltration of agents in considerable numbers is much more probable.

Paragraph 6. It et that It is too strong to state

that a total embargo against Hong Kong's trade with the main-

3.

recorded h

ん

(There is a great

'ded 1

hide with the

main bord)

land would be disastrous. Well over half of the Colonie's/Rouded.

This general trade is with countries other than China.

conclusion has been confirmed by the Governor recently.

to

4. Paragraph 9. It is considered that even in the unlikely event of the whole of the Nationalist Air Force defecting the Communists, not more than about forty medium and heavy bombers, supported by 70 fighter bombers if these could be brought within range are likely to be used in the initial air attack against Hong Kong. The scale of attack would decrease according to the proportion of the Force which remains loyal to the Nationalists.

5.

9

Paragraph 10. It is considered that the threat from the

The Communist Navy has been dismissed rather too lightly. Joint Intelligence Committee estimate that the Communists have some 65 ships including 7 Destroyer Escorts and 17 Gunboats. Although the morale of this force is thought to be low at present, it might be welded into an effective fighting force in a comparatively short time and might be of considerable nuisance value if employed against trade.

+ JIC (49) 44/4

Ø Telegram Hong Kong to Colonial Office

No. 579 dated 14th June, 1949.

2

TOP SECRET