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We examine below the probable effects on our general strategy of the further spread of Communism in China.
MILITARY IMPLICATIONS OF THE SPREAD OF COMMUNISM
Effect on Allied Strategy in War
6. Strategic Air Offensive. Although the Chinese Communists at present receive no overt Russian ard, we must assume that, in the event of wor, they may be allied with the Soviet Union against the Western Allies and that, even in peace, all Communist-dominated China may be available for the preparation of bases and for occupation by Soviet forces. This would not only assist the Russians in neutralising our strategic air bases in the Japanese islands, but would also force the Allies to deploy considerably larger static air defences than at present envisaged; this could only be done at the expense of the European and Middle East theatres.
7. Defence of Support Areas. As long as the Allies retain control of the sea communication there can be no direct military threat to the main support arcas of Australia and New Zealand. Similarly, while the Allies control the sea approaches, no serious invasion threat to Malaya or the East Indies could develop owing to the inadequate land communications.
However, as a result of Communist influence there will be increased labour troubles in Malya and the East Indies leading to increased internal security commitments. If unchecked, this will result in the decreased production of rubber, tin and oil, thereby affecting the value of these countries as minor support areas. Although Far Eastern oil production is comparatively small, its importance is increased by the vulnerability of the Middle East oil areas.
8. Control of Sea Communications. We consider that no threat to our sea communications wil develop from the Chinese Communist forces themselves. Every Communist advance, however, increases the potential ability of Russia to threaten our sea communications, though for this to be possible she would first have to gain a measure of air control over them, a formidable task in the face of American opposition.
Effect of Allied strategy in Poace
9.
Communist support for Nationalist aspirations in the Far East (for example in Indonesia and French Indo- China) will not only increase the difficulties of obtaining satisfactory settlements in these countries but will tend to create difficulties among some of the Commonwealth countries and among members of Western Union. This will in turn prevent the Colonial Powers and other interested countries in the Far East from co-operating to check the spread of Communism.
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